Congress Park burglary is the headline of April 2025 — a sharp spike that surfaces as the most anomalous single signal in Denver this month. University Hills other-larceny had held the top position last month, and that category is still moving across multiple neighborhoods, but burglary is the fresh development this briefing.
Citywide volume is down 11.7% against the prior 12 months — 43,870 incidents against 49,693 a year earlier. The signal mix is heavily tilted toward declines: 116 below-trend signals and 70 sustained-shift signals, against 17 spikes and 17 zero-event signals across 78 neighborhoods. The spikes that did surface cluster around two categories: other-larceny showing up in University Hills, Montclair, and College View - South Platte, and burglary appearing in both Congress Park and South Park Hill.
The broader arc is one of continued volume reduction, but the concentration of spikes in a single category — other-larceny across three separate neighborhoods — is the pattern worth tracking into May. Burglary in Congress Park and South Park Hill is new this month. If both hold above trend next month, that shifts from a one-month read to a structural signal.
Sustained drops worth naming
Theft from Vehicle ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 25% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for April were issued from data through March 2025. 8 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (89%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 195[171–220] | 198 | 1.5% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 9[1–17] | 22 | 59.2% | MISS |
| Burglary | 356[281–439] | 336 | 6.1% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 4[0–7] | 2 | 77.5% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 488[353–621] | 423 | 15.3% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 866[779–943] | 914 | 5.3% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 86[69–104] | 80 | 7.5% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 608[443–774] | 636 | 4.4% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 585[506–656] | 592 | 1.1% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “April 2025 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2025/april