Congress Park burglary is the headline of June 2025 — a sharp above-trend move that stands out even in a month where other-larceny signals are widespread across Denver. Montclair other-larceny had been the citywide lead category coming into this briefing, but burglary is the fresh story: South Park Hill also registered a burglary spike, giving the category a two-neighborhood footprint in the top five.
Citywide volume is down 9.5% against the prior 12 months — 43,095 incidents against 47,637. The signal mix is weighted toward declines: 118 below-trend signals and 75 sustained-shift signals against 18 spikes across 78 neighborhoods. Other-larceny spikes in Montclair, University Hills, and College View - South Platte push against that broader downtrend and account for three of the top five signals this month.
The other-larceny pattern that pushed Montclair to the top of last month's rankings hasn't reversed — it's spread. Three distinct neighborhoods are now showing the same move, which makes it a category story more than a neighborhood story. The burglary cluster in Congress Park and South Park Hill is one month old; whether it extends into July is the key thing to watch in next month's briefing.
Sustained drops worth naming
Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 32% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for June were issued from data through May 2025. 9 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 244[219–269] | 242 | 1.0% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 8[0–16] | 6 | 25.4% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 367[293–440] | 328 | 12.0% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 4[0–7] | 4 | 10.4% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 474[341–605] | 406 | 16.8% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 960[876–1047] | 949 | 1.2% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 105[85–124] | 94 | 11.8% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 627[463–806] | 604 | 3.7% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 611[544–682] | 661 | 7.5% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “June 2025 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2025/june