South Park Hill Crime Rate Trends — Denver
South Park Hill is the southern third of Park Hill, between East 26th and East 17th Avenues along Colorado Boulevard. A walkable grid of pre-war bungalows and Denver Squares, with the Park Hill Golf Course historic site (now redeveloping) on its northern edge.
Three signals moved in South Park Hill this June — one below-trend drop and two sustained structural shifts. The shape is broadly downward across property crime: motor vehicle theft and burglary are both running well below their multi-year levels, and the single fresh drop in motor vehicle theft reinforces what the 12-month picture already shows.
Motor vehicle theft is the sharpest move: 21 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline of 71.77, and down 53.3% against the prior year's 45. Burglary has undergone an even steeper structural reset — 31 incidents in the current 12 months versus 92 in the year before, a 66.3% decline that classifies as a sustained shift rather than a single quiet month. Every other tracked category outside of robbery and other larceny ran below or near prior-year levels; those two categories are up 63.6% and 39.3% respectively on a 12-month basis, but the volume in each remains small.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 21 incidents — about 71% below the 72 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 31, down 66% from 92 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 21, down 53% from 45 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How South Park Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Regis
21 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below South Park Hill's 21.
Open page →University Hills
21 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below South Park Hill's 21.
Open page →Belcaro
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above South Park Hill's 21.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for South Park Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.