College View - South Platte Crime Rate Trends — Denver
College View - South Platte is a far-southwest Denver neighborhood between Federal Boulevard and the South Platte River, just north of Hampden Avenue. A mix of mid-century residential, light-industrial along the river, and the Loretto Heights / former Teikyo Loretto Heights University campus.
Three categories ran below trend in College View - South Platte this September, all on the downward side: burglary, aggravated assault, and motor vehicle theft. No spikes, no rare events, no categories moving in opposite directions. The signal mix is uniformly negative, meaning crime is lower than expected across multiple tracked categories.
Burglary is the strongest of the three, with 40 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 62 in the prior year, a 35.5% year-over-year drop. Motor vehicle theft is down 25.3% (56 vs. 75), and aggravated assault has fallen 19.5% (33 vs. 41). Vandalism and other larceny both moved in the opposite direction over the 12-month window, up 23.7% and 14.2% respectively, but neither registered as a notable single-month signal this period. The dominant story in September is a broad, sustained retreat in the categories that carry the most risk weight.
Notable signals 3
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 40 incidents — about 45% below the 73 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 33 incidents — about 25% below the 44 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 56 incidents — about 46% below the 103 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How College View - South Platte compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Cole
40 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below College View - South Platte's 40.
Open page →DIA
40 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below College View - South Platte's 40.
Open page →University Park
40 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below College View - South Platte's 40.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for College View - South Platte, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.