College View - South Platte Crime Rate Trends — Denver
College View - South Platte is a far-southwest Denver neighborhood between Federal Boulevard and the South Platte River, just north of Hampden Avenue. A mix of mid-century residential, light-industrial along the river, and the Loretto Heights / former Teikyo Loretto Heights University campus.
Three categories ran below trend in College View - South Platte this August, all of them on the property and violent crime side. The month had no spikes and no rare events: the signal mix is uniformly downward, with burglary, motor vehicle theft, and aggravated assault each registering a below-trend signal against their multi-month baselines.
Burglary is the strongest of the three moves. The trailing 12-month total stands at 41 incidents, down from 67 in the prior 12 months, a 38.8% reduction year over year. Motor vehicle theft follows a similar arc, 52 incidents against 77 the prior year, down 32.5%. Aggravated assault dropped from 44 to 34, a 22.7% decline. Everything else, including theft from vehicle, other larceny, and vandalism, ran within range or slightly above, but the dominant structural story this month is a broad, sustained pullback across the categories that tend to drive neighborhood concern.
Notable signals 3
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 41 incidents — about 44% below the 73 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 52 incidents — about 50% below the 104 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 34 incidents — about 23% below the 44 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How College View - South Platte compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Lowry Field
41 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below College View - South Platte's 41.
Open page →Villa Park
41 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below College View - South Platte's 41.
Open page →Cole
40 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below College View - South Platte's 41.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for College View - South Platte, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.