College View - South Platte Crime Rate Trends — Denver
College View - South Platte is a far-southwest Denver neighborhood between Federal Boulevard and the South Platte River, just north of Hampden Avenue. A mix of mid-century residential, light-industrial along the river, and the Loretto Heights / former Teikyo Loretto Heights University campus.
Two categories moved in College View - South Platte in April 2026 — both drops. The shape of the month is narrow but directionally consistent: burglary and motor vehicle theft both ran below trend, with no spikes, no rare events, and no sustained structural shifts in the mix.
Burglary is the stronger of the two signals, with 50 incidents over the current 12 months against a prior-year total of 77 — down 35.1%. Motor vehicle theft follows the same direction, 60 incidents vs. 81 in the prior 12 months, a 25.9% decline. Every other tracked category — robbery, aggravated assault, other larceny, theft from vehicle, vandalism — came in within its normal range.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 50 incidents — about 32% below the 74 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 60 incidents — about 43% below the 105 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How College View - South Platte compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Platt Park
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below College View - South Platte's 50.
Open page →Athmar Park
52 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above College View - South Platte's 50.
Open page →Cole
48 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below College View - South Platte's 50.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When College View - South Platte has spiked other larceny historically (8 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 8 | 100% |
Each row shows College View - South Platte's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for College View - South Platte, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.