Montclair other-larceny is the lead signal in Denver's July 2025 briefing — a sharp move well above its multi-year baseline and the strongest single-neighborhood signal this month. No demoted backdrop applies here; this is a fresh story. The same category is repeating across the top of the rankings, with College View - South Platte, University Hills, and East Colfax all registering other-larceny spikes alongside Montclair.
Citywide volume is down 8.1% against the prior 12 months — 42,834 incidents against 46,612 — a meaningful decline in aggregate. The signal mix is asymmetric: 111 below-trend signals and 72 sustained-shift signals dominate, but 20 spikes are present this month, concentrated in other-larceny. Congress Park burglary also registered a fresh spike, making it one of the few categories outside larceny to break into the top five. Seventy-eight neighborhoods registered at least one signal across 225 total.
The structural direction in Denver remains downward — the 8.1% citywide drop is consistent with prior months' trend. The other-larceny concentration is the thing to watch: four of the top five signals are the same category across different neighborhoods, which suggests a pattern worth tracking in August rather than isolated neighborhood noise. Whether this holds or resolves will be clearer once another month of data is in.
Sustained drops worth naming
Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 31% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2025. 8 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (89%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 259[235–283] | 256 | 1.0% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 8[0–16] | 17 | 53.1% | MISS |
| Burglary | 418[338–492] | 396 | 5.5% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 5[1–8] | 7 | 31.7% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 471[340–588] | 493 | 4.5% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1069[986–1151] | 1120 | 4.6% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 107[86–125] | 92 | 16.3% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 664[500–826] | 679 | 2.1% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 667[590–741] | 702 | 4.9% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2025 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2025/july