Denver Crime Rate — November 2025

Globeville other larceny is the dominant signal in November 2025 — a sharp above-trend move that leads all Denver neighborhoods this briefing. Four of the top five anomalies this month are other-larceny spikes, with University Hills, Mar Lee, and East Colfax all registering the same category. This is not a single-neighborhood story; it is a category-wide move appearing across geographically distinct parts of the city.

Citywide volume is down 9.3% against the prior 12 months — 41,117 incidents versus 45,357 the year before. The broader signal mix leans toward improvement: 101 below-trend signals and 69 sustained-shift signals against 22 spikes across 78 neighborhoods. Congress Park aggravated assault is the one top-five anomaly outside the larceny pattern, running above trend in isolation.

The other-larceny category appearing simultaneously in Globeville, University Hills, Mar Lee, and East Colfax is new this month — lead run length is 1, meaning this cluster has no prior streak behind it. Whether this reflects a one-month concentration or the beginning of a sustained shift, the November data doesn't say. The structural citywide decline holds; the larceny cluster is the one fresh pattern to track into December.

Sustained drops worth naming

Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 35% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for November were issued from data through October 2025. 7 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (78%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.