University Hills other larceny is the month's lead signal — a sharp move well above its multi-year baseline, the largest single-category anomaly in Denver this briefing. The pattern extends beyond one neighborhood: Montclair, College View - South Platte, and Central Park all show the same category in the top five, making other larceny a broad March story rather than an isolated local one.
Citywide volume is down 12.8% against the prior 12 months — 44,056 incidents against 50,543. The signal mix is weighted toward below-trend movement: 120 drops and 69 sustained-shift signals against 21 spikes across 78 neighborhoods. Montclair stands out as a two-category mover, with both other larceny and burglary registering fresh spikes in the same month.
The larceny pattern across multiple neighborhoods is the clearest structural question to track going forward. The 229 total signals and 78 neighborhoods involved is a busy month by Denver standards, but the citywide volume decline is real and the majority of movement is still below trend. Whether the other-larceny concentration persists or this is a single-month cluster will be the key read in April.
Sustained drops worth naming
Theft from Vehicle ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 28% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for March were issued from data through February 2025. 8 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (89%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 192[166–218] | 214 | 10.2% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 5[0–13] | 15 | 66.5% | MISS |
| Burglary | 350[278–430] | 332 | 5.4% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 6[3–10] | 4 | 57.1% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 526[402–655] | 480 | 9.5% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 889[802–971] | 877 | 1.4% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 80[60–97] | 83 | 4.1% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 578[409–743] | 569 | 1.5% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 565[491–634] | 597 | 5.3% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “March 2025 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2025/march