The freshest signal this month is a homicide rare-event in Cleveland Park — a neighborhood that had gone without a tracked homicide signal until this period. Walter Reed's other-larceny pattern has been the persistent backdrop, topping the category rankings last month, but the category itself is the recurring story this briefing: other-larceny spikes appeared in both Walter Reed and Colonial Village, shifting the lead away from any single neighborhood and toward a broader category move.
Citywide volume is down 25.2% against the prior 12 months — 21,066 incidents against 28,172 the year before. The signal mix is heavily weighted toward sustained declines: 62 sustained-shift signals and 27 below-trend signals across 41 neighborhoods, with just 2 fresh spikes in the top rankings. Colonial Village stands out for appearing twice in the top five, with both an other-larceny spike and an aggravated assault streak break. Petworth theft-from-vehicle ran below trend, one of the quieter moves in an otherwise active month for signals.
The structural decline in Washington DC volume is now well-established across multiple months. The two streak breaks — Cleveland Park homicide and Colonial Village aggravated assault — are worth tracking, since streak breaks indicate categories that had been running below baseline and have now returned to or above it. Neither is a multi-month trend yet; this is the first month either appears at this level in the rankings.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 46% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for June were issued from data through May 2026. 8 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 90[60–122] | 103 | 12.2% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 85[36–134] | 69 | 22.9% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 10[2–17] | 10 | 1.4% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 344[176–508] | 226 | 52.3% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1035[787–1312] | 905 | 14.3% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 136[43–229] | 134 | 1.5% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 10[0–20] | 11 | 8.6% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 368[180–559] | 310 | 18.8% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “June 2026 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2026/june