Washington DC Crime Rate — January 2026

Walter Reed other larceny is the dominant signal in January 2026 — a fresh spike that cleared the highest anomaly threshold of any category-neighborhood combination this month. There is no recurring lead to displace: this is the first month this combination has appeared at the top of the rankings, making it a genuinely new move rather than a continuation of prior patterns.

Citywide volume is down 18.6% against the prior 12 months — 23,329 incidents against 28,665. That decline is broad-based: 51 sustained-shift signals and 26 below-trend signals account for most of the 84 total anomalies across 41 neighborhoods, with only 4 spikes in the mix. Colonial Village appears twice in the top five, with motor vehicle theft and other larceny both running above trend, while Glover Park other larceny also crossed the spike threshold.

The overall picture is a city still trending down at a meaningful rate, with the January spikes concentrated in larceny categories rather than violent crime. Colonial Village's double appearance is worth monitoring in February — two categories moving above trend in the same neighborhood in the same month is an early pattern, not yet a confirmed shift. The structural decline holds for now.

Sustained drops worth naming

Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 38% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for January were issued from data through December 2025. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.