Colonial Village motor vehicle theft is the lead signal in December 2025 — a fresh spike that displaces other-larceny as the headline bucket this month. Walter Reed other-larceny had been the top-ranked combo last month and remains active in the rankings, but the new story is motor vehicle theft crossing into elevated territory in Colonial Village.
Citywide volume is down 17.4% against the prior 12 months — 23,934 incidents against 28,987. The signal mix across 41 neighborhoods is weighted toward structural declines: 49 sustained-shift signals and 26 below-trend signals dominate the 83 total, with only 5 fresh spikes. Among those spikes, other-larceny appears in both Walter Reed and Glover Park, and Eastland Gardens registered a theft-from-vehicle move as well.
The dominant story across December is a citywide volume decline that has now held across the trailing 12 months. The spike cluster in motor vehicle theft and other-larceny bears watching — five spikes against a backdrop of 49 sustained-shift signals is a narrow counter-trend, not a reversal — but at this point the structural pattern of declining volume remains intact.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 36% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for December were issued from data through November 2025. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 59[33–85] | 70 | 15.8% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 62[15–109] | 53 | 16.1% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 9[2–16] | 6 | 56.9% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 413[249–587] | 227 | 82.1% | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 983[716–1243] | 816 | 20.4% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 118[32–208] | 69 | 70.8% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 4[0–14] | 5 | 17.3% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 472[275–674] | 319 | 47.9% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “December 2025 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2025/december