Walter Reed other larceny is the lead signal for November 2025 — a fresh spike with no prior months at the top of the rankings, making it a genuinely new pattern rather than a recurring one. Walter Reed also appears in the second position, this time for theft from vehicle, suggesting concentrated activity in that neighborhood across multiple property crime categories.
Citywide volume is down 15.2% against the prior 12 months — 24,672 incidents against 29,099. The anomaly mix is weighted toward structural improvement: 47 sustained-shift signals and 21 below-trend moves, against 7 fresh spikes across 41 neighborhoods. Glover Park other larceny and Eastland Gardens theft from vehicle also registered spikes this period, both appearing in the top five alongside the Walter Reed cluster.
With lead_run_length at one month and no demoted lead, this is a genuinely fresh signal rather than a continuation of a prior theme. The citywide decline is substantial and broad-based. Whether the Walter Reed property crime concentration persists into December or resolves as a single-month move is the main question the next briefing will answer.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 36% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for November were issued from data through October 2025. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 69[42–95] | 78 | 12.1% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 58[12–108] | 55 | 6.0% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 12[4–19] | 6 | 96.3% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 491[326–678] | 217 | 126.4% | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 1084[829–1364] | 911 | 18.9% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 166[70–262] | 103 | 60.8% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 8[0–18] | 13 | 38.2% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 521[325–733] | 334 | 56.0% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “November 2025 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2025/november