Washington DC Crime Rate — April 2025

Walter Reed theft from vehicle is the sharpest single-neighborhood signal in Washington DC this April — a standout move in a month that otherwise tilts heavily toward sustained declines. No demoted lead is in play; this is the first month Walter Reed has held the top position, making it a genuinely fresh signal rather than a recurring pattern.

Citywide volume is down 11.8% against the prior 12 months — 28,505 incidents against 32,301 the year before. The breakdown across 41 neighborhoods leans structural: 36 sustained-shift signals and 11 below-trend signals dominate the mix, with only 4 fresh spikes in the full count. Glover Park and North Cleveland Park both registered other-larceny spikes, while Brookland aggravated assault ran below trend — a different category from the theft signals at the top.

The 53 total signals this month, spread across 41 neighborhoods, reflect a market in broad decline with pockets of fresh upward movement in property crime. The Walter Reed and Navy Yard theft-from-vehicle spikes are the clearest new developments to track into May; the sustained-shift majority suggests the citywide decline has been in place long enough to become the structural baseline rather than a single-month result.

Sustained drops worth naming

Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 31% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for April were issued from data through March 2025. 8 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.