Glover Park other-larceny is the lead signal for March 2025, registering the sharpest single-neighborhood move in the briefing. The pattern isn't isolated: North Cleveland Park logged the same category in the same direction, suggesting a broader shift in other-larceny rather than a one-neighborhood anomaly. No demoted lead carries over from prior months — this is a fresh configuration.
Citywide volume is down 13.3% against the prior 12 months — 28,470 incidents against 32,855. The signal mix runs heavily toward sustained declines: 40 sustained-shift signals and 13 below-trend signals, against just 3 fresh spikes. Eastland Gardens theft-from-vehicle was one of those spikes. On the other side, aggravated assault dropped in both Brookland and Howard University, two of the stronger directional moves in the top five.
41 neighborhoods registered signals this month and the total anomaly count reached 58 — a relatively active briefing by Washington DC standards. The dominant structural story remains the multi-year volume decline, now confirmed across another month. The other-larceny concentration in northwest neighborhoods is the one thread worth tracking into April to see whether it persists or reverts.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 29% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for March were issued from data through February 2025. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 63[35–91] | 76 | 16.7% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 62[16–108] | 78 | 21.1% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 15[8–22] | 7 | 113.9% | MISS |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 468[313–631] | 396 | 18.3% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 969[714–1218] | 921 | 5.2% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 171[83–267] | 94 | 81.8% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 7[0–17] | 13 | 45.3% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 414[224–615] | 488 | 15.2% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “March 2025 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2025/march