Riverside_Sedamsville other larceny is the sharpest signal in February 2026, standing well above its multi-year baseline and ranking as the strongest individual neighborhood-category move this briefing. There is no recurring lead to displace — this is a fresh story. Other larceny also rose in Mt. Airy and Evanston, pointing to a category-wide shift rather than an isolated neighborhood event.
Citywide volume is down 3.2% against the prior 12 months — 13,686 incidents against 14,139 — a modest decline that sits alongside an unusually active signal mix. Fifty neighborhoods registered at least one tracked signal, and the breakdown runs heavily toward upward moves: 20 spikes and 18 sustained shifts against just 5 below-trend signals. Corryville stands out on two separate fronts, with both aggravated assault and burglary in the top five.
The volume trend is still negative year-over-year, but the internal composition of February's signals runs against that direction. Three neighborhoods logged other-larceny spikes in a single month, and the 53 total signals across 50 neighborhoods is a broad footprint. Whether this represents a durable shift or a single noisy February is what March's data will clarify.
Sustained drops worth naming
No sustained-shift signals this month — every category sits within its trailing-year range.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for February were issued from data through January 2026. 8 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 55[42–69] | 47 | 16.3% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 112[79–142] | 106 | 5.3% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 3[0–7] | 4 | 19.5% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 201[84–322] | 106 | 90.0% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 348[299–398] | 395 | 11.9% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 41[23–59] | 27 | 51.0% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 9[1–16] | 4 | 114.2% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 228[156–301] | 175 | 30.1% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “February 2026 — Cincinnati,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /cincinnati/2026/february