Corryville Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Corryville sits immediately east of the University of Cincinnati along Vine Street and Eden Avenue. Anchored by the UC medical campus and the long Pill Hill hospital corridor; the Short Vine commercial strip serves both students and the medical district.
August 2026 was a quiet month in Corryville. No tracked category produced a notable signal this period, and the data across all seven tracked categories sat within expected ranges.
The 12-month picture, though, continues to show a broad structural decline in property and violent crime. Robbery stands at 12 incidents over the current 12 months, against 25 in the prior year, a 52.0% reduction. Burglary fell from 44 to 30, down 31.8%, and motor vehicle theft dropped from 94 to 73, down 22.3%. Other larceny and aggravated assault also ran below prior-year levels. Sexual assault is the one category moving in the other direction, 11 incidents in the current 12 months against 7 in the prior year, a 57.1% increase on low absolute counts. Theft from vehicle held flat at 101 on both sides of the comparison.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Corryville compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
East Price Hill
194 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Corryville's 199.
Open page →Over-the-Rhine
191 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Corryville's 199.
Open page →CUF
210 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 above Corryville's 199.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Corryville, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.