Cincinnati Crime Rate — July 2026

Roll Hill aggravated assault is the lead signal this month — a fresh spike that tops the Cincinnati rankings for the first time. The backdrop is Camp Washington other-larceny, which held the top position last month and remains active in the top five this briefing. The headline rotates to a new category: assault in Roll Hill is the most statistically distinct move of the month.

Citywide volume is down 19.2% against the prior 12 months — 11,698 incidents against 14,469 the year before. The signal mix across 50 neighborhoods leans heavily toward sustained shifts (32), with 7 spikes and 8 below-trend signals rounding out the 57 total. Other-larceny spikes appear across multiple neighborhoods this month: Camp Washington, Riverside_Sedamsville, and Oakley all show the same category moving above trend, alongside a theft-from-vehicle signal in Evanston.

The broad citywide decline is the structural story: a 19.2% reduction in volume is a large move sustained across more than a year's worth of data. The other-larceny pattern appearing in three separate neighborhoods simultaneously is worth watching in August — whether that reflects a shared seasonal pattern or something more localized will clarify with another month of data.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 35% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2026. 1 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (12%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.