Camp Washington other larceny rose 179% against its multi-year baseline, the largest single-category move in Cincinnati this month. That is also the first time this combination has topped the citywide rankings, so there is no prior run to account for. The signal stands on its own as a fresh, sharp move in a small neighborhood.
Citywide volume is down 7.7% against the prior 12 months, 13,175 incidents against 14,275 the year before. The mix this month is heavily weighted toward upward pressure in specific neighborhoods: 18 spikes against just 3 below-trend signals, alongside 22 sustained-shift readings. Millvale and CUF both registered aggravated assault spikes, and CUF also appears in the top five for theft from vehicle, making it the most active neighborhood in the upper rankings this briefing.
The citywide decline holds, but the composition of this month's signals is notably spike-heavy across 50 neighborhoods. The Camp Washington move is sharp enough to watch through September; if other larceny in Roselawn, which also appears in the top five, runs at the same elevated pace next month, the category itself becomes the story rather than any single neighborhood.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 26% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for August were issued from data through July 2026. 8 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 78[51–107] | 100 | 21.9% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 145[100–192] | 110 | 31.4% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 4[0–8] | 2 | 109.9% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 288[134–438] | 181 | 58.9% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 417[314–521] | 395 | 5.5% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 55[33–78] | 48 | 15.1% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 17[9–25] | 12 | 41.8% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 304[217–396] | 256 | 18.7% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “August 2026 — Cincinnati,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /cincinnati/2026/august