Camp Washington other larceny rose 179% against its multi-year baseline, the strongest single signal in Cincinnati this month. No prior-month lead carries over as a recurring backdrop: this combination tops the rankings for the first time. The dominant story is the breadth of upward pressure, with spikes outnumbering drops by a wide margin across the city.
Citywide volume is down 7.3% against the prior 12 months, 13,235 incidents against 14,275, a continued structural decline even as individual neighborhoods moved sharply upward. The signal mix is skewed toward fresh spikes: 18 spike signals and 22 sustained-shift signals across 50 neighborhoods, against just 3 below-trend signals. Millvale and CUF both registered aggravated assault spikes, and CUF added a theft-from-vehicle signal, making it one of the more active neighborhoods in the top five this period.
The citywide downward trend holds, but August's mix is worth tracking. Ten zero-event signals suggest some categories are going quiet in certain neighborhoods, while the concentration of spikes, particularly in aggravated assault and other larceny, points to uneven pressure rather than a broad reversal. Whether the Camp Washington and Roselawn other-larceny moves are isolated or the start of a pattern is the open question heading into September.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 26% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for August were issued from data through July 2026. 8 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 78[51–107] | 104 | 24.9% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 145[100–192] | 115 | 25.7% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 4[0–8] | 2 | 109.9% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 288[134–438] | 184 | 56.3% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 417[314–521] | 415 | 0.4% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 55[33–78] | 48 | 15.1% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 17[9–25] | 15 | 13.4% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 304[217–396] | 262 | 16.0% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “August 2026 — Cincinnati,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /cincinnati/2026/august