Oakley Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Oakley is an east-side neighborhood organized around Oakley Square at Madison Road and Markbreit Avenue, between Hyde Park and Pleasant Ridge. A mix of historic single-family homes and former industrial sites redeveloped as the Oakley Station mixed-use district.
June 2026 produced two signals in Oakley, both concentrated in a single category: other larceny registered a one-month spike and a sustained structural shift simultaneously. That combination — a short-term pop sitting on top of a multi-month upward move — is the defining shape of this briefing.
Other larceny's 12-month total reached 560 incidents against 373 the prior year, a 50.1% increase, and well above the multi-year baseline of 316.53. Every other tracked category either held close to prior-year levels or declined: burglary is down 21.3% over 12 months, motor vehicle theft down 25.0%, and aggravated assault down 66.7% on a small base. Robbery is up 66.7% year-over-year, but at 10 incidents over 12 months, the absolute volume is low. The rest of the category mix was within range — the other larceny pattern is what separates June from a quiet month.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 560 incidents — about 77% above the 317 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 560, up 50% from 373 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Oakley compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Westwood
726 incidents over the past 12 months — 166 above Oakley's 560.
Open page →Downtown
345 incidents over the past 12 months — 215 below Oakley's 560.
Open page →West Price Hill
257 incidents over the past 12 months — 303 below Oakley's 560.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Oakleydoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Oakley's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Oakley, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.