Cincinnati Crime Rate — September 2026

CUF theft-from-vehicle rose 53% against its multi-year baseline, the strongest single-neighborhood signal in Cincinnati this briefing and the one that tops the rankings this month. Camp Washington other-larceny, which led last month, remains a persistent presence in the top five alongside Roselawn, also showing an other-larceny spike, but the fresh story this period is CUF and the shift in category.

Citywide volume is down 9.9% against the prior 12 months, 12,928 incidents against 14,347 in the year before. The signal mix this month leans toward elevated activity rather than declines: 16 spikes and 25 sustained-shift signals against just 3 below-trend signals, across 50 neighborhoods. CUF also registers an aggravated assault spike in the top five, as does Roll Hill, making two neighborhoods with multi-category signals worth tracking.

The structural direction is still downward citywide, and the prior-year comparison reflects that clearly. What this month adds is a concentration of upward pressure in specific neighborhoods, particularly CUF, where two categories moved in the same direction simultaneously. Whether that pairing holds into October or resolves as a single noisy month is the open question; the broader multi-year trend hasn't reversed.

Sustained drops worth naming

Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 30% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for September were issued from data through August 2026. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.