Roselawn Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Roselawn is a far-north Cincinnati neighborhood along Reading Road, just south of Lockland and inside the I-275 loop. A mix of single-family residential and the Reading Road commercial strip, with a historically Jewish heritage and active synagogues.
September 2026 produced two signals in Roselawn, both in the same category. Other larceny registered a one-month spike and a sustained structural shift simultaneously, meaning the elevated volume isn't just a noisy month: it reflects a multi-month trend that has now also produced a single-period peak on top of it. Every other tracked category was within normal range.
The structural picture behind those two signals is stark. Other larceny over the trailing 12 months reached 183 incidents, up 35.6% against the prior 12-month period of 135. That alone separates other larceny from the rest of the neighborhood's crime profile, where property and violent categories are broadly down: burglary is down 30.2% (37 vs. 53), motor vehicle theft is down 34.9% (54 vs. 83), and aggravated assault is down 22.5% (31 vs. 40). Other larceny is moving in the opposite direction from almost everything else tracked in Roselawn.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 183 incidents — about 71% above the 107 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 183, up 36% from 135 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Roselawn compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Corryville
186 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Roselawn's 183.
Open page →Over-the-Rhine
190 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Roselawn's 183.
Open page →Avondale
192 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Roselawn's 183.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Roselawndoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Roselawn's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Roselawn, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.