Downtown burglary is the headline signal for October 2025 — a pronounced above-baseline move that clears the threshold as the most statistically extreme single reading this briefing. CUF other-larceny has been the citywide lead category in recent months and remains in the top rankings, but the fresh move this period is in a different bucket: burglary, in Downtown.
Citywide volume is up 2.0% against the prior 12 months — 14,231 incidents against 13,952. The signal mix tilts heavily toward above-trend readings: 35 spikes and 19 sustained-shift signals across 50 neighborhoods, against just 5 below-trend signals. CUF and Riverside_Sedamsville both registered other-larceny spikes, while aggravated assault moved above baseline in both Mt. Airy and Corryville.
With 68 total signals across 50 neighborhoods and a spike-heavy breakdown, October does not read as a quiet month. The other-larceny pattern that led prior briefings is still active — CUF remains in the top five — but the category breadth this month is wider, with burglary and aggravated assault both generating fresh signals. Whether this broadening holds into November is the primary thing to track.
Sustained drops worth naming
No sustained-shift signals this month — every category sits within its trailing-year range.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for October were issued from data through September 2025. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 73[58–88] | 83 | 11.7% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 145[112–180] | 151 | 4.3% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 7[3–11] | 8 | 15.2% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 312[172–457] | 185 | 68.7% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 431[383–481] | 449 | 4.0% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 65[46–83] | 55 | 18.4% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 12[5–18] | 19 | 39.5% | MISS |
| Theft from Vehicle | 320[254–391] | 343 | 6.7% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “October 2025 — Cincinnati,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /cincinnati/2025/october