CUF other larceny is the lead signal for November 2025 — a sharp above-trend move that tops Cincinnati's rankings this briefing. There is no recurring backdrop to displace: this is the first month this combination has held the lead position.
Citywide volume is down 0.6% against the prior 12 months — 13,952 incidents against 14,042 — essentially flat. The signal mix, however, is anything but quiet: 33 spikes against just 3 below-trend signals across 50 neighborhoods, out of 66 total tracked signals this month. Other larceny appears repeatedly in the top five, with Riverside_Sedamsville and Mt. Airy both registering spikes alongside CUF. Downtown burglary and Corryville aggravated assault round out the most prominent moves.
The aggregate volume number masks a month of broad upward pressure. Thirty-three spikes across 50 neighborhoods — alongside 20 sustained-shift signals — suggests the flat citywide total is carrying more internal churn than prior months. CUF other larceny is new to the top position, but the category itself is appearing in multiple neighborhoods simultaneously, which makes it the pattern worth tracking into December.
Sustained drops worth naming
No sustained-shift signals this month — every category sits within its trailing-year range.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for November were issued from data through October 2025. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 63[49–79] | 66 | 4.2% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 130[97–162] | 136 | 4.8% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 3[0–7] | 2 | 58.8% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 281[140–411] | 155 | 81.2% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 405[354–453] | 411 | 1.4% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 65[48–83] | 51 | 27.4% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 14[7–22] | 17 | 15.3% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 282[213–356] | 212 | 32.8% | MISS |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “November 2025 — Cincinnati,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /cincinnati/2025/november