CUF other larceny is the dominant signal in September 2025 — a sharp upward move that sits well above any prior reading in the tracked window. No demoted lead applies here; this is a fresh story at the top of the rankings with no multi-month predecessor crowding it out.
Citywide volume is up 2.4% against the prior 12 months, 14,334 incidents against 13,996. The signal mix is heavily skewed toward fresh spikes: 34 spike signals against just 6 below-trend signals, across 50 neighborhoods. Riverside_Sedamsville also registered an other-larceny spike, Downtown showed both a burglary and a robbery spike, and Pleasant Ridge added a motor vehicle theft signal — four of the top five moves were upward.
With 67 total signals and a spike-heavy mix, September reads as an active month rather than a quiet one. The CUF and Riverside_Sedamsville other-larceny moves arriving in the same period are worth tracking in October — whether they cluster into a sustained shift or revert to baseline will determine whether this is a structural story or a single noisy month.
Sustained drops worth naming
No sustained-shift signals this month — every category sits within its trailing-year range.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for September were issued from data through August 2025. 8 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 69[54–85] | 81 | 15.3% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 144[109–177] | 139 | 3.5% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 4[0–8] | 2 | 95.0% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 303[161–435] | 222 | 36.4% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 388[339–439] | 437 | 11.2% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 56[38–73] | 63 | 10.6% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 18[10–25] | 15 | 21.0% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 311[245–382] | 358 | 13.0% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “September 2025 — Cincinnati,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /cincinnati/2025/september