Downtown burglary is the headline signal for December 2025 — the largest single-category move in Cincinnati this briefing, registering well above its multi-year baseline. Riverside_Sedamsville other-larceny holds the top ranking and has been the citywide lead category coming into this month, but a fresh bucket — burglary — is what moved hardest in this period.
Citywide volume is down 2.1% against the prior 12 months, 13,832 incidents against 14,135. The mix runs heavily toward spikes: 28 above-trend signals against just 4 below-trend, plus 17 sustained-shift signals and 8 zero-event signals across 50 neighborhoods. Corryville aggravated assault and Evanston theft from vehicle both appear in the top five, pointing to a broad-based upward move rather than a single isolated neighborhood.
With 57 total signals and 50 neighborhoods registering movement, December is an active month by Cincinnati's recent standards. The citywide volume decline is modest and holds the multi-year trajectory intact, but the concentration of spikes — 28 in a single month — is a pattern worth tracking into January to see whether it reflects a seasonal cluster or a more durable shift.
Sustained drops worth naming
No sustained-shift signals this month — every category sits within its trailing-year range.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for December were issued from data through November 2025. 8 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 66[52–81] | 61 | 7.9% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 137[105–170] | 151 | 9.3% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 3[0–7] | 6 | 56.7% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 254[104–383] | 167 | 52.0% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 410[359–460] | 417 | 1.6% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 56[38–75] | 41 | 37.2% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 13[6–21] | 11 | 21.6% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 253[180–322] | 231 | 9.5% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “December 2025 — Cincinnati,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /cincinnati/2025/december