Archived snapshotMay 2025 · narrative + chart preserved as published · live data has moved on
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Chicago · monthly briefing

Chicago Crime Rate — May 2025

Archer Heights other larceny ran 104% above its multi-year baseline.

Archer Heights other larceny is the lead signal for May 2025, posting the sharpest single-neighborhood move in the city this month. The same category surfaces in Hegewisch and North Park as well, making other larceny a theme across multiple neighborhoods rather than an isolated outlier. There is no prior-month lead combo carrying over — this configuration is new this briefing.

Citywide volume is down 7.9% against the prior 12 months — 140,054 incidents against 152,012. The signal mix leans heavily toward sustained shifts: 88 sustained-shift signals and 77 zero-event signals account for most of the 194 total across 77 neighborhoods. Fresh spikes number 18, with East Side motor vehicle theft and Hyde Park sexual assault among the other movers in the top five alongside the other-larceny cluster.

The citywide decline is the structural backdrop — a multi-month trend that this briefing doesn't disrupt. The other-larceny concentration across three neighborhoods is the one pattern worth tracking into June. With only a single streak break and one rare-event signal, nothing else in the mix suggests a broad directional shift.

FIG 1 · LEAD ANOMALYOTHER LARCENY · ARCHER HEIGHTS · 24-MO COUNT
02549μ 34.0 · σ 5.9 · trailing 12-mo2023-062025-05ARCHIVED
Archer Heights other larceny, monthly count over 24 months ending in May 2025. The dashed line is the trailing-12-month mean for context. The final bar (highlighted) is May. Frozen view as published.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 29% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

CITEPublic Analyst.ai, “May 2025Chicago,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /chicago/2025/may