Archived snapshotApril 2025 · narrative + chart preserved as published · live data has moved on
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Chicago · monthly briefing

Chicago Crime Rate — April 2025

Kenwood sexual assault ran 161% above its multi-year baseline.

Kenwood sexual assault registered the most statistically distinct move in April 2025, a spike that cleared any other signal in this briefing by a wide margin. Archer Heights other-larceny has been the recurring lead category in recent months — it stays in the top rankings again this month — but the Kenwood signal is the fresh story and the one that warrants attention first.

Citywide volume is down 6.9% against the prior 12 months, 141,616 incidents against 152,170 in the year before. The signal mix is heavily weighted toward sustained declines: 84 sustained-shift signals and 77 zero-event signals across 77 neighborhoods, against 19 spikes. Hegewisch other-larceny and East Side motor-vehicle theft both appear in the top five alongside Kenwood, adding two more fresh spikes to a month that is otherwise structurally quiet.

The broader arc holds: the multi-month decline in citywide volume continues, and the overwhelming share of signals this month point downward or flat. The Kenwood sexual-assault spike is the one category that breaks from that pattern and is new enough — no prior streak — to treat as a signal worth tracking into May.

FIG 1 · LEAD ANOMALYSEXUAL ASSAULT · KENWOOD · 24-MO COUNT
048μ 2.7 · σ 1.9 · trailing 12-mo2023-052025-04ARCHIVED
Kenwood sexual assault, monthly count over 24 months ending in April 2025. The dashed line is the trailing-12-month mean for context. The final bar (highlighted) is April. Frozen view as published.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 27% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

CITEPublic Analyst.ai, “April 2025Chicago,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /chicago/2025/april