Archived snapshotJune 2025 · narrative + chart preserved as published · live data has moved on
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Chicago · monthly briefing

Chicago Crime Rate — June 2025

East Side motor vehicle theft ran 252% above its multi-year baseline.

East Side motor vehicle theft rose sharply this month — the most prominent fresh signal in Chicago's June 2025 briefing. Hegewisch other-larceny had been the prior month's lead, and the other-larceny category remains the backdrop: three of the top five signals this period belong to it, spread across Hegewisch, Archer Heights, and North Park. The headline this briefing is a category shift, not a volume shift.

Citywide volume is down 8.8% against the prior 12 months — 138,658 incidents against 152,037. The signal mix runs heavily toward structural movement: 90 sustained-shift signals and 77 zero-event signals dominate the 196 total, with 15 fresh spikes and 13 below-trend signals across 77 neighborhoods. Fuller Park robbery also registered a fresh spike, making it one of three distinct categories with above-trend moves in the top five.

The sustained-shift count — 90 signals — is the defining feature of this month's data. The citywide decline is real and has been in place long enough to generate that volume of sustained readings. The East Side motor vehicle theft move is new and distinct enough to watch in July, but one month of data doesn't establish a trend.

FIG 1 · LEAD ANOMALYMOTOR VEHICLE THEFT · EAST SIDE · 24-MO COUNT
02143μ 19.8 · σ 6.9 · trailing 12-mo2023-072025-06ARCHIVED
East Side motor vehicle theft, monthly count over 24 months ending in June 2025. The dashed line is the trailing-12-month mean for context. The final bar (highlighted) is June. Frozen view as published.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 31% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

CITEPublic Analyst.ai, “June 2025Chicago,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /chicago/2025/june