Hyde Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Hyde Park is a South Side lakefront neighborhood organized around the University of Chicago campus and 53rd Street. Anchored by the Museum of Science and Industry, Promontory Point, the historic Robie House, and the Metra Electric line; bordered by Washington Park to the west and Lake Michigan to the east.
Hyde Park's March 2026 briefing is defined by two spikes and one sustained structural shift — three total signals, with vandalism appearing twice. The two spikes (vandalism and other larceny) are one-month above-trend moves; the third signal is a multi-month sustained increase in vandalism, which means the spike isn't just a noisy month — it's arriving on top of an already-elevated baseline.
Vandalism is the clearest story: 360 incidents in the current 12 months against 227 in the prior year, a 58.6% increase, and the 12-month total of 360 sits well above the baseline mean of 192.25. Other larceny added 1,012 incidents over the trailing year against 971 prior, a 4.2% rise. The remaining tracked categories — robbery, motor vehicle theft, sexual assault, burglary, aggravated assault — all ran within range and generated no signals this period.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 360 incidents — about 87% above the 192 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 1,012 incidents — about 57% above the 645 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 360, up 59% from 227 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Hyde Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Lincoln Park
372 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 above Hyde Park's 360.
Open page →West Ridge
375 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 above Hyde Park's 360.
Open page →Washington Heights
376 incidents over the past 12 months — 16 above Hyde Park's 360.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Hyde Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.