Hyde Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Hyde Park is a South Side lakefront neighborhood organized around the University of Chicago campus and 53rd Street. Anchored by the Museum of Science and Industry, Promontory Point, the historic Robie House, and the Metra Electric line; bordered by Washington Park to the west and Lake Michigan to the east.
Hyde Park logged four signals in June 2026 across a mixed month: one spike, one single-month drop, and two sustained structural shifts. The shape is split — vandalism is the outlier running well above trend, while robbery is moving in the opposite direction across both timeframes.
Vandalism is the standout: the current 12-month total is 348 incidents against a prior-year total of 243, a 43.2% increase, and June registered as a fresh spike on top of that already-elevated baseline. Robbery tells a contrasting story — down 44.3% over the trailing 12 months (34 incidents vs. 61 the year before), with both a single-month drop and a sustained structural shift confirming the move is not a one-month artifact. Aggravated assault also warrants attention in the background: 105 incidents in the current 12 months against 80 prior, a 31.2% rise, though it did not cross the signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 348 incidents — about 80% above the 194 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 34 incidents — about 68% below the 105 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 348, up 43% from 243 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 34, down 44% from 61 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Hyde Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Washington Heights
347 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Hyde Park's 348.
Open page →West Garfield Park
346 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Hyde Park's 348.
Open page →Lincoln Park
358 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Hyde Park's 348.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Hyde Parkdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Vandalism | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Hyde Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Chicago); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Hyde Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.