Archer Heights Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Archer Heights is a Southwest Side neighborhood between the Stevenson Expressway and Midway Airport, organized around the Archer Avenue diagonal corridor. Predominantly bungalows and brick two-flats on a tight grid, with industrial pockets along the BNSF and CSX rail corridors.
One category moved in Archer Heights in March 2026: other larceny registered a spike against its multi-year baseline. The rest of the tracked categories — robbery, aggravated assault, sexual assault, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism — produced no signals this month.
The spike stands out because the 12-month other-larceny total of 371 incidents is well above the multi-year baseline mean of 218.12, even as the broader crime picture has been moving the other way. Burglary is down 31.8% against the prior year (30 incidents vs 44), motor vehicle theft is down 29.3% (70 vs 99), and robbery is down 25.0% (24 vs 32). The structural direction across most categories is clearly downward — the other-larceny signal is the single exception.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 371 incidents — about 70% above the 218 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Archer Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
South Deering
366 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Archer Heights's 371.
Open page →Washington Park
366 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Archer Heights's 371.
Open page →Garfield Ridge
363 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Archer Heights's 371.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Archer Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.