Chicago Crime Rate — July 2025

Archer Heights other larceny is the lead signal for July 2025 — a fresh spike with no prior months at the top of the rankings. There is no recurring lead to displace this month; the category is new to the citywide lead position. Other larceny also registered spikes in Hegewisch and Hyde Park, making it the category with the most concentrated top-five presence this briefing.

Citywide volume is down 9.6% against the prior 12 months — 137,351 incidents against 151,947. The signal mix is active: 15 spikes against 14 below-trend moves, with 92 sustained-shift signals and 77 zero-event signals across 77 neighborhoods. East Side motor vehicle theft and Fuller Park robbery are the other fresh spikes in the top five, adding two distinct categories to a month otherwise shaped by larceny.

With 200 total signals and a broad spread across 77 neighborhoods, July is not a quiet month. The larceny concentration across multiple neighborhoods is worth tracking into August — three separate neighborhoods in the top five is a structural pattern, not isolated noise. The citywide decline holds, but the spike-to-drop ratio is nearly even, which marks a shift from the sustained-decline profile of prior months.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 33% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.