Fuller Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Fuller Park is a small Near South Side community area between the Dan Ryan Expressway and the Norfolk Southern rail corridor. Named for Chief Justice Melville Fuller; one of Chicago's least populous community areas, with predominantly low-rise housing.
August 2026 was a quiet month in Fuller Park. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and the signal count across the neighborhood was zero. The story this month is in the 12-month trend lines rather than in any single-month movement.
Robbery is down 44.9% against the prior 12 months, 27 incidents vs 49, the sharpest year-over-year move in the neighborhood's crime mix. Burglary follows the same direction, down 35.7% (9 vs 14). Moving the other way, motor vehicle theft is up 33.3% over the same period, 64 incidents vs 48, and vandalism is up 15.8%, 66 vs 57. Other larceny and aggravated assault are essentially flat year over year. No category produced a one-month signal this period; the divergence between violent crime declining and property crime rising is the structural pattern to watch going into September.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Fuller Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Mount Greenwood
110 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Fuller Park's 107.
Open page →Forest Glen
93 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 below Fuller Park's 107.
Open page →Riverdale
131 incidents over the past 12 months — 24 above Fuller Park's 107.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Fuller Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.