Fuller Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Fuller Park is a small Near South Side community area between the Dan Ryan Expressway and the Norfolk Southern rail corridor. Named for Chief Justice Melville Fuller; one of Chicago's least populous community areas, with predominantly low-rise housing.
March 2026 was a quiet month in Fuller Park. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold — zero signals across the full flag mix — making this one of the more stationary months in recent data.
The 12-month totals still show meaningful structural movement beneath the surface. Burglary is down 29.4% against the prior year (12 incidents vs. 17), aggravated assault is down 18.5% (53 vs. 65), and robbery is down 17.4% (38 vs. 46). Motor vehicle theft runs in the opposite direction — up 41.9%, 61 incidents against 43 in the prior 12 months — though even that shift did not cross the threshold this month. Every other tracked category finished within its expected range.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Fuller Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Mount Greenwood
102 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Fuller Park's 98.
Open page →Forest Glen
112 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 above Fuller Park's 98.
Open page →Riverdale
117 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 above Fuller Park's 98.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Fuller Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.