Delridge other larceny is the sharpest single signal in Seattle this month, registering the one fresh above-trend move in an otherwise broadly declining briefing. There is no prior-month lead to displace — this is the first month Delridge other larceny has topped the rankings — and it stands out precisely because the surrounding context is so quiet.
Citywide volume is down 8.9% against the prior 12 months, 47,127 incidents versus 51,703. The anomaly mix tells the same story: 22 sustained-shift signals and 7 below-trend signals against just 1 above-trend move across 20 neighborhoods. Greater Duwamish vandalism and Northwest theft-from-vehicle both ran below trend, extending a pattern visible across much of the top five.
With 12 zero-event signals and the bulk of tracked categories moving in the same direction, July 2026 looks more like a structural check-in than a turning point. The Delridge other-larceny move is the one exception worth watching — whether it persists into August or reverts to the citywide trend is the single open question this briefing leaves.
Sustained drops worth naming
No sustained-shift signals this month — every category sits within its trailing-year range.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2026. 6 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (60%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 315[269–356] | 288 | 9.4% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 21[11–31] | 8 | 164.4% | MISS |
| Burglary | 650[485–814] | 468 | 38.8% | MISS |
| Homicide | 6[2–10] | 3 | 85.9% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 465[323–603] | 352 | 32.1% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 957[723–1166] | 860 | 11.2% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 141[111–172] | 105 | 34.1% | MISS |
| Sexual Assault | 59[44–74] | 60 | 2.3% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 957[669–1221] | 843 | 13.5% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 590[495–689] | 448 | 31.6% | MISS |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2026 — Seattle,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /seattle/2026/july