Northwest theft from vehicle fell 40% against its multi-year baseline, the sharpest single-category drop in Seattle this month and the headline signal for August 2026. Delridge other-larceny has been the persistent backdrop, topping the prior month's rankings, but the category driving the most attention this briefing is a different one: theft from vehicle, and the move is a decline, not a rise.
Citywide volume is down 7.9% against the prior 12 months, 47,274 incidents against 51,305 in the year before. The signal mix is heavily tilted toward sustained declines and below-trend readings: 22 sustained-shift signals and 11 below-trend signals across 20 neighborhoods, with just one fresh spike citywide. Vandalism ran below trend in both Greater Duwamish and Northwest, and West Seattle burglary also came in under its usual pace.
The structure of this month is broadly consistent with a multi-month downward trend, with one exception: the Delridge other-larceny spike is the lone category moving in the opposite direction. That signal is new to the top of the rankings this month. Whether it holds or reverts is the open question for September; the broader citywide picture, 45 tracked signals weighted toward declines, is the more durable story.
Sustained drops worth naming
No sustained-shift signals this month — every category sits within its trailing-year range.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for August were issued from data through July 2026. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 313[271–356] | 322 | 2.9% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 19[9–30] | 14 | 33.6% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 646[480–811] | 544 | 18.7% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 6[2–10] | 3 | 107.0% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 498[361–637] | 408 | 22.1% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 945[723–1182] | 938 | 0.8% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 149[116–183] | 117 | 27.2% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 56[41–71] | 62 | 9.9% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 1029[773–1311] | 1203 | 14.5% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 570[461–670] | 509 | 12.1% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “August 2026 — Seattle,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /seattle/2026/august