Northwest theft from vehicle fell 40% against its multi-year baseline, the strongest single-category move in Seattle this month and the headline signal for August 2026. Delridge other-larceny has been the top-ranked combination for the prior month and remains a backdrop to watch, but the new movement this briefing is in Northwest, where a sharp vehicle-theft drop stands out against an otherwise calm month.
Citywide volume is down 9.7% against the prior 12 months, 46,327 incidents against 51,305 in the year before. The mix is heavily tilted toward sustained declines: 22 sustained-shift signals and 11 below-trend signals across 20 neighborhoods, against just one fresh spike. Vandalism fell in both Greater Duwamish and Northwest, and West Seattle burglary also ran below trend, adding breadth to what is otherwise a quiet month.
The dominant structural story is deceleration. With 11 zero-event signals and only one fresh spike in the entire month, August 2026 reads more as consolidation than reversal. The Northwest theft-from-vehicle drop is new and worth tracking into September to see whether it holds or reverts; the rest of the pattern looks like a continuation of the multi-month downward trend.
Sustained drops worth naming
No sustained-shift signals this month — every category sits within its trailing-year range.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for August were issued from data through July 2026. 6 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (60%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 313[271–356] | 315 | 0.7% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 19[9–30] | 12 | 55.9% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 646[480–811] | 436 | 48.1% | MISS |
| Homicide | 6[2–10] | 3 | 107.0% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 498[361–637] | 384 | 29.7% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 945[723–1182] | 706 | 33.9% | MISS |
| Robbery | 149[116–183] | 114 | 30.5% | MISS |
| Sexual Assault | 56[41–71] | 58 | 3.7% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 1029[773–1311] | 848 | 21.3% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 570[461–670] | 399 | 42.9% | MISS |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “August 2026 — Seattle,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /seattle/2026/august