Delridge other larceny rose 29% against its multi-year baseline, the sharpest single-category move in Seattle this month and the first time this combination has topped the citywide rankings. No prior-month lead was carrying over: this is a fresh signal with no established run behind it.
Citywide volume is down 7.8% against the prior 12 months, 46,439 incidents against 50,351. The mix leans heavily toward sustained declines and below-trend readings: 18 sustained-shift signals and 12 below-trend signals across 20 neighborhoods, against just one fresh spike. Downtown homicide was a rare-event signal, low absolute counts but outside the expected range. Northwest recorded drops in both theft from vehicle and vandalism, two distinct categories in the same neighborhood moving the same direction.
The structural direction in Seattle remains downward, and the 43 total signals this month are dominated by categories holding below their prior-year levels. Delridge other larceny is the exception to watch: a single month above baseline is not a trend, but if it persists into October it moves from a one-month signal to something more durable.
Sustained drops worth naming
No sustained-shift signals this month — every category sits within its trailing-year range.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for September were issued from data through August 2026. 9 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (90%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 285[242–323] | 270 | 5.5% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 15[4–26] | 10 | 48.3% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 634[489–800] | 473 | 34.1% | MISS |
| Homicide | 5[1–9] | 6 | 23.5% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 439[303–583] | 386 | 13.7% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 947[736–1165] | 760 | 24.6% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 135[100–167] | 102 | 32.2% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 60[44–76] | 69 | 13.0% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 1029[760–1302] | 861 | 19.5% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 510[404–608] | 421 | 21.1% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “September 2026 — Seattle,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /seattle/2026/september