The month's most novel signal is a streak break in Outer Richmond homicide — a rare-event category shift in a neighborhood that had held at near-zero for an extended run. Bernal Heights other-larceny had been the citywide lead category entering this briefing, but the demotion is editorial: the same bucket had held the top position, and a distinct move in a different category earns the headline this month.
Citywide volume is down 25.1% against the prior 12 months — 48,774 incidents against 65,138 in the year before. The signal mix is heavily weighted toward sustained declines: 83 sustained-shift signals and 47 below-trend signals, against just 2 fresh spikes across 41 neighborhoods. Other-larceny spikes in both Bernal Heights and Noe Valley stand out as the outliers in an otherwise decline-dominated picture, with Marina theft-from-vehicle and Russian Hill robbery both running below trend.
The structural story of the prior months holds: broad-based declines, minimal upward pressure, and a signal count dominated by categories moving lower. The Outer Richmond homicide streak break is the one pattern to watch — not because the volume is large, but because it marks a change in a category that had been flat for long enough to register as a rare-event shift. One month of data doesn't establish a direction; October's briefing will clarify whether it persists.
Sustained drops worth naming
Theft from Vehicle ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 50% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “April 2025 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2025/april