Bernal Heights other larceny is the dominant signal this month — a sharp above-trend move that stands as the single largest anomaly in the March 2025 briefing. Noe Valley registered the same category in the same direction, suggesting the pattern isn't isolated to one neighborhood. There is no recurring lead from prior months to displace: this pairing is new.
Citywide volume is down 25.3% against the prior 12 months — 49,865 incidents versus 66,792 the year before. The mix is heavily weighted toward sustained declines: 82 sustained-shift signals and 42 below-trend signals across 41 neighborhoods, against just 2 fresh spikes. Marina and Golden Gate Park both ran below trend on theft from vehicle, and Russian Hill robbery continued downward.
The two other-larceny spikes are the clearest new development in an otherwise broad-based declining month. Whether this reflects a localized pattern concentrated in Bernal Heights and Noe Valley or the start of a wider shift is something the April data will clarify. The structural citywide decline remains intact.
Sustained drops worth naming
Theft from Vehicle ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 50% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “March 2025 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2025/march