Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD15 covers Sheepshead Bay, Manhattan Beach, Gravesend, Gerritsen Beach, Homecrest, and Madison. Anchored by the Sheepshead Bay marina and fishing-fleet docks, Plumb Beach, Marine Park's western edge, the Belt Parkway, Kingsborough Community College on Manhattan Beach, and the B/Q lines.
Three categories moved in Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay this month: one below-trend signal and two sustained structural shifts, both pointing downward. The dominant shape is a multi-year pullback in property crime, with the single-month drop in vandalism sitting on top of longer-running decreases in burglary and motor vehicle theft.
Vandalism's trailing 12-month total is 386 incidents, down 19.4% against the prior year's 479. Burglary has fallen further — 123 incidents in the current window versus 186 the year before, a 33.9% decrease the data classifies as structural rather than a one-month dip. Motor vehicle theft follows the same pattern: 201 incidents versus 278 prior, down 27.7%. Everything else in the tracked categories was within range this month, with two categories — robbery and aggravated assault — each up roughly 16% year over year on relatively modest counts, but neither produced a signal this briefing.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 386 incidents — about 27% below the 525 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 123, down 34% from 186 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 201, down 28% from 278 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens
382 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay's 386.
Open page →Staten Island CD3 — South Shore
391 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay's 386.
Open page →Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst
402 incidents over the past 12 months — 16 above Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay's 386.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.