Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD15 covers Sheepshead Bay, Manhattan Beach, Gravesend, Gerritsen Beach, Homecrest, and Madison. Anchored by the Sheepshead Bay marina and fishing-fleet docks, Plumb Beach, Marine Park's western edge, the Belt Parkway, Kingsborough Community College on Manhattan Beach, and the B/Q lines.
Eight categories moved in Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay this month — three one-month below-trend signals and five sustained structural shifts. The dominant pattern is a broad, multi-year property crime decline, not a single quiet month.
Vandalism, burglary, and theft from vehicle all ran below trend in May 2026. The 12-month totals tell the longer story: burglary is down 43.9% against the prior year (101 incidents vs 180), motor vehicle theft is down 46.0% (154 vs 285), and vandalism sits at 303 incidents against a prior-year total of 476 — a 36.3% decline. Five of the eight signals this month are sustained shifts, meaning the drop in this neighborhood is structural, not statistical noise.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 303 incidents — about 42% below the 524 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 101 incidents — about 48% below the 194 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 144 incidents — about 46% below the 268 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,093, down 28% from 1,525 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 154, down 46% from 285 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 303, down 36% from 476 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 101, down 44% from 180 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens
306 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay's 303.
Open page →Manhattan CD9 — Morningside Heights / Hamilton Heights
297 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay's 303.
Open page →Staten Island CD3 — South Shore
311 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay's 303.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.