Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD15 covers Sheepshead Bay, Manhattan Beach, Gravesend, Gerritsen Beach, Homecrest, and Madison. Anchored by the Sheepshead Bay marina and fishing-fleet docks, Plumb Beach, Marine Park's western edge, the Belt Parkway, Kingsborough Community College on Manhattan Beach, and the B/Q lines.
Seven categories moved in Brooklyn CD15 (Sheepshead Bay) in July 2026, split between three one-month below-trend signals and four sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across both property and violent crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix. This is not a single quiet category pulling the numbers down; the breadth of movement points to a neighborhood-wide pattern.
Vandalism, burglary, and theft from vehicle were the three sharpest one-month signals, all running below trend. Over the trailing 12 months, burglary is down 39.3% against the prior year (105 incidents vs. 173), motor vehicle theft is down 39.9% (164 vs. 273), and vandalism is down 27.4% (324 vs. 446). The four sustained-shift signals reinforce that these are not single-month moves: the declines in robbery, aggravated assault, sexual assault, and other larceny reflect structural changes that have been accumulating across multiple 12-month windows, not a single unusual period.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 324 incidents — about 38% below the 523 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 105 incidents — about 46% below the 193 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 145 incidents — about 46% below the 266 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 164, down 40% from 273 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 324, down 27% from 446 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 105, down 39% from 173 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 145, down 29% from 203 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens
331 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay's 324.
Open page →Manhattan CD9 — Morningside Heights / Hamilton Heights
340 incidents over the past 12 months — 16 above Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay's 324.
Open page →Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst
341 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 above Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay's 324.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.