Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD15 covers Sheepshead Bay, Manhattan Beach, Gravesend, Gerritsen Beach, Homecrest, and Madison. Anchored by the Sheepshead Bay marina and fishing-fleet docks, Plumb Beach, Marine Park's western edge, the Belt Parkway, Kingsborough Community College on Manhattan Beach, and the B/Q lines.
Eight categories moved in Brooklyn CD15 (Sheepshead Bay) this August, all in the same direction. Three registered as single-month below-trend signals, vandalism, burglary, and theft from vehicle, while five others show sustained multi-month structural shifts downward. The overall shape is a broad, deepening decline across both property and violent crime categories.
The strongest single-month signal is vandalism, down 32.4% over the trailing 12 months, 294 incidents against 435 in the prior year. Burglary and theft from vehicle tell a similar story: burglary is down 48.3% (91 vs. 176) and theft from vehicle down 36.3% (130 vs. 204). Robbery and motor vehicle theft are also well below prior-year levels, at -28.0% and -48.2% respectively. Every tracked category is running below the prior 12-month total, and the five sustained-shift signals indicate this is not a single quiet month but a structural move that has been building across multiple periods.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 294 incidents — about 44% below the 521 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 91 incidents — about 53% below the 193 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 130 incidents — about 51% below the 265 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,109, down 26% from 1,505 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 143, down 48% from 276 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 294, down 32% from 435 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 91, down 48% from 176 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens
297 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay's 294.
Open page →Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst
300 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay's 294.
Open page →Staten Island CD3 — South Shore
304 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay's 294.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.