Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD16 covers Brownsville and Ocean Hill. Anchored by the Pitkin Avenue, Belmont Avenue, and Eastern Parkway commercial corridors, Betsy Head Park, Brownsville Recreation Center, and the 3 and L subway lines.
Four categories moved in Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill this month: one spike, one drop, and two sustained shifts. The structural pattern is more concerning than any single signal — aggravated assault and at least one other category are running above multi-year baselines, not just registering a noisy one-month jump.
Other larceny is the sharpest single-month signal, with 1,589 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline mean of 1,214.29 — up 23.1% year-over-year. Aggravated assault tells a longer story: 817 incidents in the current 12 months vs. 653 in the prior year, a 25.1% rise that qualifies as a sustained structural shift, not a one-month anomaly. Vandalism moved in the other direction — down 4.1% year-over-year — and is the lone below-trend signal in an otherwise upward-tilted month.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 1,589 incidents — about 31% above the 1214 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 787 incidents — about 9% below the 867 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 817, up 25% from 653 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Burglary is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 224, up 46% from 153 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst
1,582 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill's 1,589.
Open page →Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont
1,597 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill's 1,589.
Open page →Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick
1,579 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill's 1,589.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.