Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD16 covers Brownsville and Ocean Hill. Anchored by the Pitkin Avenue, Belmont Avenue, and Eastern Parkway commercial corridors, Betsy Head Park, Brownsville Recreation Center, and the 3 and L subway lines.
Two categories moved in Brooklyn CD16, Brownsville / Ocean Hill in July 2026, one a single-month below-trend signal and one a multi-month structural shift. The overall picture is downward: both signals point to lower-than-usual activity, and nothing spiked.
Vandalism registered the month's sharpest single-month signal, with the trailing 12 months at 742 incidents against 781 in the prior year, a drop of 5.0%. Motor Vehicle Theft tells a longer story: 94 incidents over the past 12 months against 148 in the year before, down 36.5%, a sustained structural shift rather than a single quiet month. The rest of the tracked categories, including Robbery (down 15.2% year-over-year) and Theft from Vehicle (down 21.0%), moved in the same direction but stayed within expected ranges.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 742 incidents — about 14% below the 864 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 94, down 37% from 148 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant
743 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill's 742.
Open page →Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem
745 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill's 742.
Open page →Staten Island CD1 — North Shore
720 incidents over the past 12 months — 22 below Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill's 742.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.