Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD16 covers Brownsville and Ocean Hill. Anchored by the Pitkin Avenue, Belmont Avenue, and Eastern Parkway commercial corridors, Betsy Head Park, Brownsville Recreation Center, and the 3 and L subway lines.
Four signals surfaced in Brooklyn CD16 this month: two one-month below-trend drops and two sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is downward, with both property and violent crime categories running below their prior-year levels across nearly every tracked bucket.
Vandalism and theft from vehicle are the two sharpest month-level signals, both below trend. Theft from vehicle also registers as a multi-month structural shift, with 127 incidents over the current 12 months against 178 in the prior year, down 28.7%. Motor vehicle theft and robbery show the steepest 12-month declines in the broader data, off 45.8% and 24.7% respectively, though neither crossed the anomaly threshold this month. Everything else in the category mix held within its normal range.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 670 incidents — about 22% below the 862 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 127 incidents — about 34% below the 192 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 78, down 46% from 144 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 127, down 29% from 178 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant
666 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill's 670.
Open page →Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem
676 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill's 670.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
697 incidents over the past 12 months — 27 above Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill's 670.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.