New York Crime Rate — September 2025

The month's most novel signal is an aggravated assault spike in Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park, the largest single-neighborhood move in this briefing. Sexual assault in Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights had held the top position last month, and that category is still present across multiple neighborhoods this period — but aggravated assault in Forest Hills / Rego Park is the fresh movement that leads.

Citywide volume in New York is down 4.2% against the prior 12 months — 272,110 incidents against 283,933. The signal mix is nearly balanced: 36 spikes against 35 below-trend moves, plus 62 sustained-shift signals across 59 neighborhoods. Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester shows up twice in the top five, with both sexual assault and aggravated assault running above baseline — the only neighborhood to register two fresh spikes at the top of the rankings.

The overall decline holds, but the spike-to-drop balance is closer than in recent months. Sexual assault appearing in two separate neighborhoods — Queens CD13 and Bronx CD12 — is worth tracking in October. One month of co-occurrence is not a pattern, but the geographic spread across two boroughs makes it the category to watch as the fall briefing cycle begins.

Sustained drops worth naming

Arson ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 27% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.