Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester Crime Rate Trends — New York
The Bronx's northernmost community district covers Williamsbridge, Baychester, Wakefield, Edenwald, Olinville, and Eastchester. Anchored by the White Plains Road and Boston Road commercial corridors, the 2/5 train terminus at Wakefield–241 Street, and the Bronx-Westchester border at the Bronx River Parkway.
Three signals moved in Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester this month: one single-month spike and two sustained shifts, both pointing upward. The shape is concentrated rather than broad — this isn't a neighborhood where every category shifted, but where the categories that did move are doing so with structural weight.
Sexual Assault is carrying both signals: a one-month spike and a multi-month sustained shift, with the current 12-month total at 321 incidents against a prior-year total of 239 — up 34.3%. Theft from Vehicle is the second sustained shift, up 36.6% over the prior 12 months (332 vs. 243). Every other tracked category — including Robbery, down 13.5%, and Arson, down 60.0% — ran within range or below trend.
Notable signals 1
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 321 incidents — about 79% above the 179 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 332, up 37% from 243 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Sexual Assault is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 321, up 34% from 239 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Staten Island CD1 — North Shore
296 incidents over the past 12 months — 25 below Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester's 321.
Open page →Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights
358 incidents over the past 12 months — 37 above Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester's 321.
Open page →Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City
265 incidents over the past 12 months — 56 below Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester's 321.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester has spiked aggravated assault historically (14 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Sexual assault | 15 | 93.3% |
| Aggravated assault | 14 | 100% |
| Vandalism | 9 | 0% |
| Robbery | 4 | — too few |
Each row shows Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 3 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.