Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester Crime Rate Trends — New York
The Bronx's northernmost community district covers Williamsbridge, Baychester, Wakefield, Edenwald, Olinville, and Eastchester. Anchored by the White Plains Road and Boston Road commercial corridors, the 2/5 train terminus at Wakefield–241 Street, and the Bronx-Westchester border at the Bronx River Parkway.
Three categories moved in Bronx CD12, Williamsbridge / Baychester this July 2026 briefing: one single-month below-trend signal and two structural sustained shifts. The overall shape is downward, and the sustained shifts point to changes that have been building across multiple months, not just a quiet July.
Arson is the sharpest single-month signal, with only 9 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 19 in the prior year, down 52.6%. Robbery and motor vehicle theft both carry sustained-shift readings, each declining structurally: robbery is down 28.3% year-over-year (380 vs 530) and motor vehicle theft down 28.2% (460 vs 641). Every other tracked category, including aggravated assault, burglary, and other larceny, ran within range of prior-year levels.
Notable signals 1
Arson
The past 12 months saw 9 incidents — about 63% below the 24 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 460, down 28% from 641 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 380, down 28% from 530 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month arson volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable arson levels.”
Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona
9 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester's 9.
Open page →Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose
10 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester's 9.
Open page →Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park
10 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester's 9.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.