Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester Crime Rate Trends — New York
The Bronx's northernmost community district covers Williamsbridge, Baychester, Wakefield, Edenwald, Olinville, and Eastchester. Anchored by the White Plains Road and Boston Road commercial corridors, the 2/5 train terminus at Wakefield–241 Street, and the Bronx-Westchester border at the Bronx River Parkway.
Four tracked signals shaped August 2026 in Bronx CD12, Williamsbridge / Baychester: two one-month below-trend readings and two sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall pattern is broadly downward, with no spikes or rare events in the mix, and the sustained shifts point to changes that have been building across more than a single month.
Arson and burglary both ran below their recent baselines this month, with arson at 9 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 17 in the prior year, a 47.1% decline. Robbery registered as a sustained structural shift, 348 incidents in the current 12-month window versus 511 in the prior 12, down 31.9%. Aggravated assault, motor vehicle theft, and other larceny also posted double-digit year-over-year declines, with everything else in the tracked categories within a broadly downward range.
Notable signals 2
Arson
The past 12 months saw 9 incidents — about 63% below the 24 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 198 incidents — about 25% below the 263 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 403, down 38% from 646 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 348, down 32% from 511 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month arson volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable arson levels.”
Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose
9 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester's 9.
Open page →Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park
9 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester's 9.
Open page →Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona
9 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester's 9.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.