Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD6 covers Forest Hills and Rego Park. Anchored by the Queens Center mall on its western edge, the Austin Street commercial corridor, Forest Park, the Forest Hills Stadium, and the E/F/M/R subway lines along Queens Boulevard.
August 2026 produced a single notable signal in Forest Hills / Rego Park: a below-trend read on vandalism. With only one category moving this month, the broader story is the sustained, across-the-board decline in the 12-month totals rather than any fresh activity.
Vandalism logged 206 incidents over the trailing 12 months, down 19.5% against the prior year's 256. That pattern extends to every tracked category: burglary is down 21.5% (117 vs 149), sexual assault down 25.3% (56 vs 75), aggravated assault down 17.3% (129 vs 156), and other larceny down 20.0% (1,817 vs 2,271). Every other category landed within its expected range this month, leaving the dominant structural story as a broad, multi-category retreat across both violent and property crime.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 206 incidents — about 41% below the 351 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights
209 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park's 206.
Open page →Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park
200 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park's 206.
Open page →Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side
227 incidents over the past 12 months — 21 above Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park's 206.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.