Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD6 covers Forest Hills and Rego Park. Anchored by the Queens Center mall on its western edge, the Austin Street commercial corridor, Forest Park, the Forest Hills Stadium, and the E/F/M/R subway lines along Queens Boulevard.
Two categories moved in Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park this month: one spike and one sustained structural shift. The overall volume of signals is low, but the two that surfaced point in different directions — aggravated assault up, theft from vehicle structurally lower over the trailing year.
Aggravated assault is the sharper signal, running above its multi-year baseline with 162 incidents in the current 12 months against 134 in the prior year — a 20.9% increase. Theft from vehicle tells a different story: the 12-month total of 79 is down 32.5% against the prior year's 117, a sustained shift rather than a single quiet month. Robbery is also lower on a 12-month basis, down 18.6%, though it did not cross the signal threshold this month. Everything else — burglary, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, sexual assault — held within range.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 162 incidents — about 112% above the 77 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 79, down 33% from 117 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Staten Island CD3 — South Shore
151 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 below Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park's 162.
Open page →Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights
136 incidents over the past 12 months — 26 below Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park's 162.
Open page →Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck
111 incidents over the past 12 months — 51 below Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park's 162.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park has spiked motor vehicle theft historically (11 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 27 | 48.1% |
| Motor vehicle theft | 11 | 100% |
| Burglary | 3 | — too few |
Each row shows Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 3 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.