Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD6 covers Forest Hills and Rego Park. Anchored by the Queens Center mall on its western edge, the Austin Street commercial corridor, Forest Park, the Forest Hills Stadium, and the E/F/M/R subway lines along Queens Boulevard.
Two categories moved in Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park this May: one single-month below-trend signal and one structural shift that has persisted across multiple months. The overall shape is downward, concentrated in property crime, with the rest of the tracked categories running within their normal ranges.
Vandalism is the sharper single-month signal — the current 12-month total stands at 216 incidents against a baseline of 355.27, a substantial gap below trend. Theft from vehicle has shifted structurally: 61 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 112 in the prior year, down 45.5% — the largest year-over-year move of any tracked category here and not a one-month fluctuation but a multi-month pattern. Robbery, burglary, and other larceny are all down year-over-year as well, but none crossed an anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 216 incidents — about 39% below the 355 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 61, down 46% from 112 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park
211 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park's 216.
Open page →Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights
229 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 above Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park's 216.
Open page →Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side
235 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 above Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park's 216.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.