The month's most distinct fresh signal is an aggravated assault spike in Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park — the sharpest single-neighborhood move in this briefing. Sexual assault in Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights had been the top-ranked combination in the prior period, and it remains prominent in the top five this month, but the Forest Hills / Rego Park aggravated assault reading is the new lead.
Citywide volume in New York is down 3.5% against the prior 12 months — 274,192 incidents against 284,269 the year before. The signal mix this month is notably balanced: 35 above-trend signals against 37 below-trend, with 55 sustained-shift signals across 59 neighborhoods. Sexual assault accounts for three of the top five signals — Queens CD13, Staten Island CD3 — South Shore, and Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester all registered spikes in the same category this month.
The sexual assault pattern across multiple boroughs is the structural story to watch. Four of the top five signals this month involve that one category, spread from Staten Island to the Bronx. The aggravated assault move in Forest Hills / Rego Park is a fresh, isolated reading — one month of data, no prior streak — so the July briefing is partly a check-in on a broad category pattern and partly a watch on whether that Queens CD6 reading repeats.
Sustained drops worth naming
No sustained-shift signals this month — every category sits within its trailing-year range.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2025 — New York,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /new-york/2025/july