Staten Island CD3 — South Shore Crime Rate Trends — New York
Staten Island's southernmost community district covers the South Shore — Tottenville, Great Kills, Eltingville, Annadale, Huguenot, Prince's Bay, Pleasant Plains, Richmond Valley, Charleston, and Rossville. Anchored by the Korean War Veterans Parkway, the West Shore Expressway, Great Kills Park along Raritan Bay, the Outerbridge Crossing approach, and the Staten Island Railway's southern terminus at Tottenville.
July 2026 produced a single structural signal in Staten Island CD3, South Shore: burglary running well below its multi-year pace, a sustained shift rather than a one-month dip. Every other tracked category stayed within its normal range this month.
Burglary is down 38.6% over the trailing 12 months, 51 incidents against 83 in the prior year, a move large enough to qualify as a structural change in the neighborhood's property-crime baseline. Other larceny is also meaningfully lower, 654 incidents vs 853 a year ago, a 23.3% decline, and robbery has dropped from 41 to 28, off 31.7%. Motor vehicle theft is the one category moving the other direction, up 8.7%, though at 50 incidents over 12 months it represents a modest counter-move against an otherwise broadly lower picture.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 51, down 39% from 83 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Staten Island CD3 — South Shore compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights
69 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 above Staten Island CD3 — South Shore's 51.
Open page →Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood
78 incidents over the past 12 months — 27 above Staten Island CD3 — South Shore's 51.
Open page →Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island
82 incidents over the past 12 months — 31 above Staten Island CD3 — South Shore's 51.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Staten Island CD3 — South Shore, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.