Staten Island CD3 — South Shore Crime Rate Trends — New York
Staten Island's southernmost community district covers the South Shore — Tottenville, Great Kills, Eltingville, Annadale, Huguenot, Prince's Bay, Pleasant Plains, Richmond Valley, Charleston, and Rossville. Anchored by the Korean War Veterans Parkway, the West Shore Expressway, Great Kills Park along Raritan Bay, the Outerbridge Crossing approach, and the Staten Island Railway's southern terminus at Tottenville.
March 2026 was a quiet month for Staten Island CD3 — South Shore. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and the flag count sits at zero across all signal types — no spikes, no below-trend signals, no sustained shifts, no rare events.
The 12-month picture is more mixed than the quiet month implies. Vandalism is up 18.1% against the prior year (391 incidents vs. 331), and aggravated assault is up 10.2% (151 vs. 137). On the other side, motor vehicle theft is down 25.0% (42 vs. 56), burglary is down 24.4% (59 vs. 78), and other larceny is down 14.2% (745 vs. 868). No single-month move was sharp enough to register as a signal, but the divergence between rising vandalism and aggravated assault on one hand and broad property-crime declines on the other is the structural pattern to watch heading into April.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Staten Island CD3 — South Shore compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck
873 incidents over the past 12 months — 128 above Staten Island CD3 — South Shore's 745.
Open page →Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park
920 incidents over the past 12 months — 175 above Staten Island CD3 — South Shore's 745.
Open page →Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood
957 incidents over the past 12 months — 212 above Staten Island CD3 — South Shore's 745.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Staten Island CD3 — South Shore, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.