Woodlawn Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Woodlawn is a South Side neighborhood organized around 63rd Street and Cottage Grove Avenue, bordered by the University of Chicago to the north and the Jackson Park Historic District to the east. Anchored by the Obama Presidential Center site, the Metra Electric line, and the Midway Plaisance park.
April 2026 produced a single signal in Woodlawn: one category — Other Larceny — registered a spike against its multi-year baseline. The rest of the tracked categories either held flat or moved within normal range, making this a narrow month with no broad structural shift.
Other Larceny is running at 811 incidents over the trailing 12 months, up 8.9% against the prior 12-month total of 745. That volume sits above the multi-year baseline of 572.27 — a gap wide enough to register as a spike. Everything else was contained: Burglary is down 20.5% year-over-year (89 vs. 112), Aggravated Assault is down 7.3% (242 vs. 261), and Motor Vehicle Theft and Vandalism are both higher on a 12-month basis but did not cross anomaly thresholds this period.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 811 incidents — about 42% above the 572 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Woodlawn compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Roseland
798 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 below Woodlawn's 811.
Open page →Lincoln Square
788 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 below Woodlawn's 811.
Open page →North Lawndale
762 incidents over the past 12 months — 49 below Woodlawn's 811.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Woodlawn has spiked other larceny historically (15 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 15 | 100% |
Each row shows Woodlawn's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Chicago); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Woodlawn, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.