Gage Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Gage Park is a Southwest Side neighborhood organized around Western Avenue and 55th Street, anchored by Gage Park itself. Predominantly bungalows and worker cottages, bordered by the BNSF and CSX rail corridors.
Four categories moved in Gage Park this March — one spike and three sustained shifts. The structural story is split: violent crime has been falling across multiple categories for over a year, while other larceny has moved in the opposite direction and is now the neighborhood's most prominent signal.
Other larceny sits at 714 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a baseline of 357.2 — a doubling — and also registered a single-month spike this briefing. Robbery shows a sustained structural decline, down 52.5% over the prior 12 months (56 incidents vs. 118). Aggravated assault and motor vehicle theft follow the same directional pattern, down 16.2% and 36.4% respectively, though neither crossed the anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 714 incidents — about 100% above the 357 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 714, up 68% from 425 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 56, down 53% from 118 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 124, down 36% from 195 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Gage Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
South Lawndale
700 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 below Gage Park's 714.
Open page →West Ridge
741 incidents over the past 12 months — 27 above Gage Park's 714.
Open page →Chicago Lawn
682 incidents over the past 12 months — 32 below Gage Park's 714.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Gage Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.