Gage Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Gage Park is a Southwest Side neighborhood organized around Western Avenue and 55th Street, anchored by Gage Park itself. Predominantly bungalows and worker cottages, bordered by the BNSF and CSX rail corridors.
Four categories moved in Gage Park in August 2026: one one-month spike and three structural sustained shifts. The dominant story is other larceny, which is both the single-month spike and a multi-month structural rise, meaning the volume increase is not noise. Three sustained shifts in one briefing points to a neighborhood mid-transition, not a random noisy month.
Other larceny is the clearest mover: 803 incidents in the current 12 months against 502 in the prior year, a 60.0% rise. Robbery is pulling in the opposite direction, down 41.1% over the same 12-month window, 56 incidents against 95. Arson is the quieter concern, 11 incidents against 5 in the prior year, a 120.0% increase on low absolute counts, and aggravated assault is down 22.2%, 105 incidents against 135. Everything else, burglary, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, and homicide, also ran below their prior-year levels, making the other larceny rise the clear outlier in an otherwise broadly downward neighborhood.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 803 incidents — about 121% above the 364 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 803, up 60% from 502 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 56, down 41% from 95 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 124, down 28% from 172 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Gage Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Woodlawn
802 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Gage Park's 803.
Open page →North Lawndale
794 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Gage Park's 803.
Open page →Roseland
777 incidents over the past 12 months — 26 below Gage Park's 803.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Gage Parkdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Gage Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Chicago); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Gage Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.