North Lawndale Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
North Lawndale is a West Side neighborhood organized around Roosevelt Road and Ogden Avenue, anchored by Douglass Park and the historic Sears Roebuck headquarters tower. Predominantly two- and three-flat housing, with the Eisenhower Expressway as the southern border.
Two categories moved in North Lawndale this September, both below trend. Robbery and vandalism each registered as one-month below-trend signals, and nothing else crossed the anomaly threshold. The overall shape of the month is narrow but directionally consistent with a longer pull toward lower violent-crime volume.
Robbery is the stronger of the two signals. The trailing 12-month total stands at 158, down 23.3% against the prior 12 months (206 incidents). Vandalism was nearly flat over the same window, 619 vs 626, so the one-month dip there is notable but not yet structural. Motor vehicle theft and other larceny are both running above prior-year pace, up 18.7% and 10.0% respectively, though neither crossed the anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 2
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 158 incidents — about 51% below the 319 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 619 incidents — about 21% below the 787 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How North Lawndale compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Chatham
151 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below North Lawndale's 158.
Open page →Greater Grand Crossing
166 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above North Lawndale's 158.
Open page →Humboldt Park
167 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above North Lawndale's 158.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for North Lawndale, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.