Rogers Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Rogers Park is a Far North Side neighborhood between the Evanston border and Devon Avenue, organized around the CTA Red Line's Loyola, Morse, and Howard stations. Anchored by Loyola University Chicago, the Glenwood Avenue Arts District, and a stretch of lakefront beaches.
Three categories moved in Rogers Park this March — two one-month below-trend signals and one structural, multi-month shift. The shape is uniformly downward: robbery and vandalism both ran below trend for the month, while motor vehicle theft has crossed into sustained-shift territory, meaning the decline there is a multi-year structural move, not just a quiet stretch.
Robbery's 12-month total sits at 75, down 26.5% against the prior year's 102 and below its multi-year baseline. Vandalism follows a similar direction, falling 22.8% to 321 incidents over the trailing 12 months. Motor vehicle theft's sustained shift is the most structurally significant signal: 218 incidents in the current 12-month window against 295 in the prior period, a 26.1% reduction that reflects a longer reset in that category's baseline rather than month-to-month noise. Everything else in Rogers Park was within range this month.
Notable signals 2
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 75 incidents — about 39% below the 124 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 321 incidents — about 30% below the 456 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 218, down 26% from 295 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Rogers Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
West Pullman
70 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Rogers Park's 75.
Open page →Belmont Cragin
83 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Rogers Park's 75.
Open page →Lower West Side
67 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Rogers Park's 75.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Rogers Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.