Rogers Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Rogers Park is a Far North Side neighborhood between the Evanston border and Devon Avenue, organized around the CTA Red Line's Loyola, Morse, and Howard stations. Anchored by Loyola University Chicago, the Glenwood Avenue Arts District, and a stretch of lakefront beaches.
Three categories moved in Rogers Park this April — two one-month below-trend signals and one structural sustained shift. The overall shape is downward across both property and violent crime, with nothing registering above trend.
Robbery and vandalism each ran below their recent baselines this month; robbery's 12-month total stands at 77 incidents against a prior-year count of 94, down 18.1%. Motor vehicle theft is the longer structural story: a sustained shift downward, with 207 incidents over the current 12 months versus 279 in the year before — a 25.8% reduction that reflects a multi-month change, not just a single quiet month. Every other tracked category was within range.
Notable signals 2
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 77 incidents — about 38% below the 123 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 312 incidents — about 31% below the 455 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 207, down 26% from 279 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Rogers Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Belmont Cragin
77 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Rogers Park's 77.
Open page →Lower West Side
72 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Rogers Park's 77.
Open page →Uptown
84 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Rogers Park's 77.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Rogers Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.