West Pullman Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
West Pullman is a Far South Side neighborhood west of the historic Pullman district, organized around 119th and Halsted Streets. Predominantly single-family bungalows and ranch homes, bordered by the Calumet rail corridor and the Riverdale community area.
Two categories moved in West Pullman this September, one up and one down, against a broader 12-month backdrop that is mostly flat to declining. The shape of the month is narrow: a single spike and a single below-trend signal, with everything else within range.
Sexual assault is the stronger of the two signals, with 51 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 31 in the prior year, a 64.5% increase. Robbery ran the other direction, down 24.7% year-over-year, 61 incidents against 81 the prior 12 months. Outside those two categories, vandalism is down 10.0%, arson down 52.9%, and aggravated assault off 4.9%, all multi-month trends rather than fresh monthly moves.
Notable signals 2
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 51 incidents — about 84% above the 28 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 61 incidents — about 35% below the 94 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How West Pullman compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Belmont Cragin
51 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below West Pullman's 51.
Open page →Englewood
51 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below West Pullman's 51.
Open page →Hyde Park
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below West Pullman's 51.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
West Pullmandoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Sexual assault | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows West Pullman's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 3 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Chicago); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West Pullman, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.