West Pullman Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
West Pullman is a Far South Side neighborhood west of the historic Pullman district, organized around 119th and Halsted Streets. Predominantly single-family bungalows and ranch homes, bordered by the Calumet rail corridor and the Riverdale community area.
West Pullman had a mixed month — four tracked signals across distinct directions. The dominant shape is a one-month sexual assault spike sitting against a broader property-crime decline, with vandalism and aggravated assault both running below trend and a sustained structural shift rounding out the picture.
Sexual assault is the sharpest signal: 43 incidents in the current 12-month window against a baseline of 27.58, and up 65.4% year over year. Vandalism and aggravated assault moved the other way — vandalism is down 23.5% (429 vs. 561 prior-year incidents) and aggravated assault is down 24.7% (189 vs. 251). The violent-crime categories outside sexual assault are broadly lower across the trailing year, with robbery off 26.3% and homicide down 70.0% on small counts.
Notable signals 3
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 43 incidents — about 56% above the 28 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 429 incidents — about 18% below the 521 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 189 incidents — about 28% below the 263 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 158, up 53% from 103 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How West Pullman compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Lincoln Park
43 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below West Pullman's 43.
Open page →Belmont Cragin
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below West Pullman's 43.
Open page →Hyde Park
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below West Pullman's 43.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West Pullman, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.