West Englewood Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
West Englewood is a South Side neighborhood organized around 63rd and Ashland, bordered by Garfield Boulevard and the Norfolk Southern rail corridor. Predominantly bungalows and two-flats; anchored by Lindblom High School, Sherman Park, and Ogden Park.
West Englewood's June 2026 briefing centers almost entirely on robbery. Two signals surfaced this month — a one-month below-trend drop and a sustained structural shift — and both point to the same category moving in the same direction. The rest of the tracked categories were within normal range.
Robbery's 12-month total stands at 110, down 42.4% against the prior year's 191 and well below the multi-year baseline of 207.42. That combination of a single-month signal and a structural shift makes this a durable move, not a one-month anomaly. Sexual assault is the one counter-current in the data — up 20.5% year-over-year, 47 incidents against 39 — but it did not cross the signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 110 incidents — about 47% below the 207 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 110, down 42% from 191 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How West Englewood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Auburn Gresham
110 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below West Englewood's 110.
Open page →West Garfield Park
110 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below West Englewood's 110.
Open page →South Lawndale
108 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below West Englewood's 110.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West Englewood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.