West Englewood Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
West Englewood is a South Side neighborhood organized around 63rd and Ashland, bordered by Garfield Boulevard and the Norfolk Southern rail corridor. Predominantly bungalows and two-flats; anchored by Lindblom High School, Sherman Park, and Ogden Park.
Three signals surfaced in West Englewood this April — two one-month below-trend readings and one sustained structural shift. The shape of the month is narrow but pointed: violent crime, specifically robbery and homicide, is the story, with robbery appearing twice across different signal types.
Robbery is the most prominent mover, generating both a single-month drop and a sustained-shift signal — the 12-month total stands at 107 against a multi-year baseline mean of 207.86, and down 46.0% from 198 in the prior 12-month period. Homicide also ran below trend this month; the trailing 12-month count of 6 is 64.7% below the prior year's 17. Everything else — other larceny, vandalism, burglary, motor vehicle theft — fell within normal range and generated no signals.
Notable signals 2
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 107 incidents — about 49% below the 208 average from prior years.
Homicide
The past 12 months saw 6 incidents — about 78% below the 27 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 107, down 46% from 198 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How West Englewood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
South Lawndale
107 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below West Englewood's 107.
Open page →East Garfield Park
109 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above West Englewood's 107.
Open page →South Chicago
104 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below West Englewood's 107.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West Englewood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.