West Englewood Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
West Englewood is a South Side neighborhood organized around 63rd and Ashland, bordered by Garfield Boulevard and the Norfolk Southern rail corridor. Predominantly bungalows and two-flats; anchored by Lindblom High School, Sherman Park, and Ogden Park.
West Englewood registered two signals in August 2026, both concentrated in a single category: robbery ran both as a one-month below-trend signal and as a multi-month structural shift. The picture is unusually narrow, two signals, one category, one direction, and every other tracked category came in within its normal range.
Robbery is the clearest story in the data. The trailing 12-month total stands at 105 incidents, down from 180 in the prior 12 months, a 41.7% reduction year over year. The sustained-shift signal confirms this is not a one-month dip: the decline has held long enough to register as a structural change. Homicide moved in the opposite direction over the same window, 19 incidents against 12 in the prior year, up 58.3%, though it did not cross the anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 105 incidents — about 49% below the 207 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 105, down 42% from 180 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How West Englewood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Auburn Gresham
107 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above West Englewood's 105.
Open page →New City
100 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below West Englewood's 105.
Open page →South Chicago
99 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below West Englewood's 105.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West Englewood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.