New City Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
New City is a Southwest Side neighborhood that includes the Back of the Yards subdivision, organized around 47th Street and Ashland Avenue. Historically the heart of the Union Stock Yards and the city's meatpacking industry; predominantly bungalows and worker cottages.
March 2026 produced a single tracked signal in New City: a sustained structural shift in robbery, not a one-month dip but a multi-month realignment between the current trailing year and the year before. One signal is the whole story this month — no spikes, no rare events, nothing else crossed the threshold.
Robbery is down 48.0% over the current 12 months against the prior 12 — 102 incidents versus 196. That scale of change across a full year distinguishes this from noise. Every other tracked category, including aggravated assault (−11.3%, 291 vs 328) and motor vehicle theft (−15.3%, 222 vs 262), ran below prior-year levels as well, but none registered a formal signal. The broader directional picture is consistent: all nine tracked categories in New City are lower year-over-year, with robbery the only one that cleared the sustained-shift threshold.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 102, down 48% from 196 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How New City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Chicago Lawn
105 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above New City's 102.
Open page →East Garfield Park
106 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above New City's 102.
Open page →West Englewood
107 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above New City's 102.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for New City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.